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Trump, McSally surge in Arizona

President Trump has narrowed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead in Arizona to within 1 percentage point less than a day before the election, improving his standing with Independent voters and once-wavering Republicans, a new poll shows.

Biden holds a 0.6 percentage point advantage over Trump, 45.9% to 45.3%, according to results from Data Orbital’s tracking poll published on Monday. It’s the first time Trump has been within a point of Biden, who held a 5.2 percentage point lead over him less than two weeks ago.

Biden now holds 7.5% of the Republican vote, down from between 12% to 13% in Data Orbital’s two prior surveys. Trump has captured Independent voters and added undecided voters, along with Independents, who had planned to vote for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen.

Nearly 5% of voters declined to share their preferred candidate.

The survey, which has a 4.18 percentage point margin of error, polled 550 likely voters between Oct. 28-30. The state holds 11 Electoral College votes.

The presidential race has moved from a toss-up to lean Republican, Data Orbital president George Khalaf said in a statement.

“Trump seems to have a modest surge underway in Arizona, and it is in close races, like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, that his campaign’s emphasis on the ground game will be material to the outcome,” said Republican strategist Mike McKenna.

Arizona’s early vote tracking shows nearly 2.5 million ballots have been returned so far, with 37% from Republican voters, 37.4% from Democrats, and 25.6% from Independents.

Trump is closing in on Biden in the top battlegrounds, RealClearPolitics‘ polling average shows, narrowing from a 4 to 5 percentage point lead earlier this month to 2.7 percentage points on Monday.

Arizona’s hotly contested U.S. senate race has also tightened. Democratic Party candidate Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 1.1 percentage points, 47.1% to 46%. McSally has scored a significant boost after polling at 41.9% to Kelly’s 48.1% less than two weeks ago.

“If turnout trends continue to hold as they are, and Sen. McSally continues to minimize Republican cross-voting, she has a real chance of winning reelection,” Khalaf said, noting that the firm now views the race as a toss-up.

Arizona is a closely watched battleground where rapidly changing demographics and a Republican electorate that has typically favored conservative politicians in the mold of former Sens. John McCain or Jeff Flake was expected to tilt away from Trump this year.

Trump won the state by a slim 3.5% margin in 2016, a smaller lead than Mitt Romney, John McCain, or George W. Bush before him.

Earlier this year, McSally, who was appointed to serve the remainder of McCain’s term by Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, drew notice for refusing to say during a debate with Kelly whether she was proud to support Trump.

“I’m proud to be fighting for Arizona every single day,” she said in response.

Trump returned the favor in Bullhead City last week, calling McSally to the stage for “one minute” to address the crowd, telling her, “They don’t want to hear this, Martha.”

McKenna predicted Trump would “probably run about 5 points ahead of Sen. McSally.”

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